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Real estate activity in Canada’s cottage country returns to seasonal norms after more than two years of pandemic fueled exuberance

Following a period of relentless buyer demand and fast-rising home prices during the pandemic real estate boom, Canada's recreational markets are anticipating more subdued activity levels and price declines in 2023.

According to the recently-released Royal LePage 2023 Spring Recreational Property Report, the aggregate price of a single-family home in Canada's recreational regions is forecast to decrease 4.5% in 2023 to $592,005, compared to 2022, as activity in the market wanes. This is due to reduced demand as a result of economic uncertainty and a lack of available housing stock, which has helped to keep prices stable. Despite a modest decrease expected this year, the national aggregate price would remain more than 32% above 2020 levels, after two years of double-digit price gains in the country's recreational real estate market.

In 2022, the aggregate price of a single-family home in Canada's recreational property regions increased 11.7% year-over-year to $619,900. This follows year-over-year price gains of 26.6% in 2021.

“After two years of relentless year-round competition, Canada's recreational property markets have slowed and returned to traditional seasonal sales patterns,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “While interest rate hikes have less of an impact on the recreational market than homes in urban settings, because families typically put more money down and borrow less, general consumer inflation combined with a severe lack of inventory has dampened sales activity.

According to a survey of more than 200 Royal LePage recreational real estate professionals across the country, 57% of respondents reported less inventory this year, compared to last year. At the same time, 51% of respondents said they have witnessed less demand for recreational properties in their region, compared to this time last year. When compared to typical pre-pandemic levels, 65% of recreational property experts nationally reported less inventory, while a majority reported similar (38%) or more (38%) demand.

“Recreational homebuyers tend to purchase for leisure and life-enriching purposes. Call it a want versus a need,” added Soper. “Unlike many city buyers who may need to acquire a principal residence quickly, secondary home purchasers often have the benefit of time to find the right property for their specific needs.”

Quebec and Ontario expected to see the largest recreational property price decreases in 2023, with forecasted declines of 8% and 5%, respectively, compared to 2022

RESALE MARKET SPRINGS BACK IN FAVOUR OF SELLERS

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 1,488 residential properties in April 2023 compared with 1,876 in April 2022, a decrease of 21%.

“Ottawa’s resale market is on a steady upward trajectory, narrowing the comparison gap to peak pandemic activity in 2022. However, with new listings not keeping pace, the available housing stock is declining, and with less than two months of inventory — we’re back into seller’s market territory,” says OREB's President.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in April in the Ottawa area was $747,123, a decrease of 10% from a year ago. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $435,875 a decrease of 8% from 2022.

“Upward pressure on sales prices continues with average prices increasing for the fourth month since the market low in December. Additionally, multiple offer situations have returned to certain neighbourhoods and overall days on market are maintaining their downward trend. There continues to be low inventory in certain property classes and new product is coming to the market at a slower rate, which is affecting supply”, adds OREB's President.

6 tips for a seamless moving day

Moving into a new home should be an exciting time, but without proper planning and organization, the whole experience can quickly turn into an overwhelming ordeal.

To help ease the anxieties of moving day, here's a handy to-do list to keep you organized and on-track:

1. Plan ahead

This may seem obvious, but many people find themselves rushing to hire movers and pack their belongings in the final frantic days leading up to their big move. To avoid the stress this can cause, and to ensure moving day flows smoothly, be sure to start packing at least one month in advance. Focus on one room or closet at a time, and use this as an opportunity to purge items you no longer need.  Moving into a new place means starting fresh – donate, rehome or recycle those belongings that won't serve a purpose in your new home. Remember, the first and last days of the month are popular moving days, so don't put off booking your professional movers in advance.

2. Optimize your packing process

For safe travels and storage, pack your belongings in durable moving boxes, ideally new or ones that have little wear-and-tear. There's also the option to rent reusable moving crates that can be returned once your move is complete. You can even hire professional packers to do it for you! To avoid sensitive items getting wet or damaged, use plastic, sealable bags and bins to protect clothing, books and important documents. And, be sure to bubble wrap glassware and fragile items to keep them from shattering in transit!

3. Label and organize your boxes

Label each moving box with the room it belongs in (ie. kitchen, bathroom, bedroom #1). Take it a step further by numbering each box and creating a tracking document to specify which boxes should go in each room. This not only makes it easier for your movers to know where to place your items, but it also helps you to keep track of all your boxes.

4. Make those small repairs before moving in

If time allows, paint the walls, deep clean the appliances, and complete any minor repairs before moving into your new place. Unsurprisingly, it is a lot better to have a fully functioning home before you start to unpack and assemble furniture. If this is not an option for you, consider placing all your items in the garage or basement at first, or simply in the centre of a room, to allow you a few days to clean thoroughly and complete any small jobs necessary before settling into your new space.

5. Update your services and accounts

It can take time for some utilities to get up and running. Set a reminder to take your name off your current utility bills and set up accounts for services at your new place in advance of moving in. Remember to also change the mailing address on your subscriptions, delivery services, and most importantly government and banking documents.

6. Make a plan for your first night

Moving day can be a long and tiring process, so you'll want to plan ahead for that first night. You may not have the time or energy to set up your bedroom right away, or perhaps you are having a new mattress delivered in the coming week. Book a hotel or arrange to stay with family or friends until you are ready to sleep comfortably in your new home.

March Resales: Signs of Spring Surge Sprouting

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 1,194 residential properties in March 2023 compared with 2,003 in March 2022, a decrease of 40%.

“The recent rise in transactions is a sign of typical spring activity, even if we’re behind the pandemic peaks of 2022. As spring unfolds, so too will a clearer picture of Ottawa’s balanced market state,” says OREB's President. “As evidenced by the recent climb in freehold prices, Ottawa’s resale market is stabilizing along with the interest rate. Condos remain steady due to their lower price point, there’s more affordability based on the current interest rate structure. Prices are certainly headed in the right direction—if you are looking forward.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in March in the Ottawa area was $710,070, a decrease of 17% from a year ago. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $418,670 a decrease of 13% from 2022.

“Well-priced and well-prepared homes are selling. REALTORS® have up-to-the-minute statistics to ensure sellers are positioning themselves at the current market value based on recent sales and hyper-local market comparisons. Buyers can benefit from the same data along with their negotiation expertise to guarantee they are receiving the best value for their dollar.”

Buyers spring back: Sidelined Canadians plan return to market

More than a quarter of Canadians who put their home purchase plans on hold over the last year say they will resume their search this spring

Climbing interest rates have given many Canadian homebuyers reason to pause their purchase plans over the last year. Nearly one quarter of Canadians (24%) were in the market for a new home this past year, and 63% of them say they postponed their plans due to rising rates, according to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Maru/Blue. Now,with the Bank of Canada placing a hold on the overnight lending rate for the first time since March of 2022,many homebuyers intend to resume their purchasing plans once again. Of those who say they postponed their plans, 62% now intend to return to the market.

The survey found that more than a quarter (26%) of Canadians who put their home purchase plans on hold over the last year due to rising interest rates will resume their search this spring, following the Bank of Canada's announcement last month to hold the overnight lending rate at 4.5%. Meanwhile, more than one third (36%) say they plan to move forward with their buying intentions, but will wait for the central bank to maintain the current rate for several consecutive months. Some 25% of those who postponed their home buying goals stated that they do not intend to resume their plans in the near future.

“Eight times a year, the Bank of Canada announces changes to its key interest rate, and for eight consecutive meetings, they aggressively raised rates in an effort to tame runaway inflation. On March 8th, 2023 they did nothing and doing nothing was a very big deal,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.“Based on our just-completed national survey,this was the signal that many Canadians were waiting for – an indication that it was safe to wade back into the housing market to search for the family home they so desperately want or need.”

For those Canadians who intend to jump back into the housing market, many are gravitating towards a fixed rate mortgage, which can shelter homeowners from fluctuating interest rates. More than half (53%) say they would choose a four- or five-year fixed rate mortgage, and 17% say they would choose a short-term fixed-rate mortgage (1-3 years). Some 16% of respondents say they would opt for a variable rate mortgage.

“The Bank of Canada has indicated that it believes the rate hikes completed over the past twelve months are working their way through the economy, and that inflation should fall to three per cent by mid-year,” continued Soper. “While stating that they believe this period of rising rates is behind us, the bank qualified the statement, stating that if needed, it will increase rates again in the future.That said, it is unlikely we will see another period of back-to-back rate hikes in the near future.

Saving for your first home? Here's what you need to know about Canada's First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

When it comes to putting money away to buy their first home, the federal government's 'tax-free in, tax-free out' First Home Savings Account aims to give Canadians a helping hand.

As of April 1st, Canadians aged 18 or older who are purchasing their first home are eligible to enroll in a tax-free First Home Savings Account (FHSA). Introduced in the 2022 federal budget, the FHSA combines elements of a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) and a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), allowing users to make tax-deductible contributions and tax-free withdrawals from the account for the purposes of saving for a home.

Am I eligible for the FHSA?

In order to open an FHSA, users must be at least 18 years old and a Canadian resident. Account holders must also be a first-time homebuyer — someone who has not owned a home and lived in it during the calendar year before the account is opened, or at any time during the prior four calendar years.

An FHSA can be used for a maximum of 15 years, and stay open until December 31st in the year that the account holder turns 71 years old. Users cannot contribute to their spouse or common-law partner's FHSA.

How much can I contribute to my FHSA?

FHSA holders can contribute an annual maximum of $8,000 into their account, with a lifetime contribution limit of $40,000. Unused contribution room can be carried over to the next year up to a maximum of $8,000. Carryforward amounts start accumulating after the user opens the FHSA for the first time. Only the account holder can claim an income tax deduction for contributions made in a particular taxation year.

It is possible to have more than one FHSA open at a time, but the total amount that an individual can contribute to all of their FHSAs cannot exceed their annual and lifetime contribution limits. Similar to a TFSA, a 1% tax is applied on over-contributions to an FHSA for each month that the excess amount exists in the account.

What are the benefits of the FHSA?

An FHSA marries together the concepts of a TFSA and an RRSP in one account.

Contributions to an FHSA, like an RRSP, are taxdeductible. Additionally, any withdrawals made for the sake of purchasing a home are non-taxable, similar to a TFSA, including any investment growth. Users can take advantage of a series of qualified investments in their FHSA, including mutual funds and publicly-traded securities, plus government and corporate bonds. Users can also set up a self-directed FHSA to manage their own portfolio.

What happens when I want to take money out of my FHSA?

If a user wants to withdraw funds from their account, there are a few things to keep in mind.

The account holder must be a first-time homebuyer at the time a withdrawal is made. The qualifying home must be acquired (or construction must be completed) no more than 30 days prior to the withdrawal, and before October 1st of the following year, with the intention of occupying the property as their principal residence within one year after acquiring it. Be sure to read carefully the definitions of a first-time homebuyer and a qualifying home.

If you wish to transfer money out of your FHSA to another account, you can do so to another FHSA, an RRSP or a Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF). Be sure to close your FHSA on or before December 31st of the year following your first qualifying withdrawal, when your participation period concludes.

To learn more about the First-Home Savings Account, visit Canada.ca.

Resale Market Stabilizes in February with a Glimmer of Hope for Buyers and Sellers Alike!

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 855 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,411 in February 2022, a decrease of 39%. February’s sales included 633 in the freehold-property class, down 42% from a year ago, and 222 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 31% from February 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in February is 1,157.

“We’re going to see declines in transactions and prices when we compare current figures to last February — the height of the pandemic resale market activity,” says Ottawa Real Estate Board’s President Ken Dekker. “On the other hand, with the Bank of Canada holding interest rates steady, prospective buyers have more budget certainty to work with as we head into the spring market.”

By the Numbers – Average Prices*:

• The average sale price for a freehold-class property in February was $708,968, a decrease of 15% from 2022. However, it marks a 5% increase over January 2023.

• The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $410,927, decreasing 12% from a year ago.

• With year-to-date average sale prices at $695,086 for freeholds and $411,449 for condos, these values represent a 14% decrease over 2022 for freehold-class properties and a 10% decrease for condominium-class properties.

“The average price increase for freeholds over January could be an indicator that buyers have normalized to the current interest rates. And perhaps, it’s a glimmer of more activity to come in the months ahead.”

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

• Months of Inventory for the freehold-class properties has increased to 2.8 months from 0.7 months in February 2022.

• Months of Inventory for condominium-class properties has increased to 2.5 months from 0.7 months in February 2022.

• February’s new listings (1,366) were 22% lower than February 2022 (1,762) and up 3% from January 2023 (1,323). The 5-year average for new listings in February is 1,632.

• Days on market (DOM) for freeholds decreased from 43 to 37 days and 47 to 43 days for condos compared to last month.

“A decrease in the days on market, paired with fewer new listings entering the market, is good news for sellers,” says Dekker. “However, if that trend continues to impact our supply stock and we don’t get more inventory, our otherwise balanced market could swing back into seller’s territory — but it’s too early to predict.”

“The best advice for sellers and buyers in today’s market is to pay close attention to the comparison and competition insights only a REALTOR® can offer. Ottawa is made up of many micro-markets, and neighbourhood-level data is vital to standing out and closing deals.”

REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 995 properties compared to 800 last year at this time, an increase of 24%.

Resale Market Starts Slow as Buyers Remain Cautious

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 606 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 933 in January 2022, a decrease of 35%. January’s sales included 460 in the freehold-property class, down 30% from a year ago, and 146 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 47% from January 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 819.

“January’s marked slow down in unit sales over 2022 indicates potential home buyers are taking their time,” says OREB President Ken Dekker. “While last month saw the culmination of the succession of interest rate hikes announced by the Bank of Canada, affordability remains a factor. They may be waiting for a shift in listing prices. They’re being cautious in uncertain conditions.”

By the Numbers – Average Prices*:

• The average sale price for a condominium-class property in January was $412,244, a decrease of 8% from 2022.

• The average sale price for a freehold-class property was $676,272, decreasing 12% from a year ago.

“Despite the decrease in average prices, the market should not be considered on a downward slide,” says Dekker. “A hyper COVID-19 seller’s market is now leveling out to our current balanced market state.”

“On a positive note, in comparison to December’s figures, January’s average price of freehold properties increased by 3%. The average price of condos did fall by 5% compared to December but condo pricing tends to fluctuate more due to the small data set.”

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

• Months of Inventory for the freehold-class properties has increased to 3.8 months from 0.9 months in January 2022.

• Months of Inventory for condominium-class properties has increased to 3.8 months from 0.8 months in January 2022.

• January’s new listings (1,324) were 16% higher than 2022 (1,142) and up 89% from December 2022 (699). The 5-year average for new listings in January is 1,233.

“Ottawa’s inventory and days on market figures are typical for a balanced market and another sign that buyers are no longer racing to put in an offer,” says Dekker. “The increase in new listings and supply is a boon for home buyers, who now have more selection and the ability to put in conditions at a less frantic pace. REALTORS® are an essential resource in finding the right property for the right buyer. On the other side of the transaction, REALTORS® can help sellers with hyper-local insights about how to sell in their neighbourhood at a time when pricing is key.”

More people are turning to REALTORS® for help renting properties — 509 this month compared to 410 in January 2022, an increase of 24%. “Even with the increase in housing stock, the tighter rental market is another indication that affordability is keeping some potential buyers on the sidelines.”

Foreign Buyer Ban

Canada's foreign homebuyer ban went into effect on January 1st, 2023, and will remain in place for two years. Housing affordability remains a concern for Canadians and interest rates are still rising. Those with variable-rate mortgages are paying hundreds more per month and those with fixed-rate mortgages who have yet to renew are terrified of rising interest rates.

The foreign buyer ban is put in place to prevent foreign buyers from buying large amounts of properties to use as investment homes.The ban will increase number of homes on the market and gradually helping to decrease the price of homes. According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, the average cost of a home is 67 per cent more than what the average Canadian household can afford.

Which properties are included in the ban?

The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act states that all residential properties including detached homes or similar buildings, semi-detached houses, rowhouse units, residential condominium units and other similar premises.

The legislation applies to residential properties located in an area with a total population of at least 100,000 people with at least 50,000 living in its core (known as a census metropolitan area) and an area with a core population of at least 10,000 people (known as a census agglomeration).

Who is exempt from the ban?

There are some exceptions to the ban, including, those in Canada with temporary work permits, refugee claimants and international students who meet certain criteria.The ban does not apply to those who are Canadian citizens or permanent residents, and it also does not apply to non-Canadians looking to rent a residential property in Canada.

Non-Canadians with a spouse or common-law partner who is a Canadian citizen, permanent resident, person registered under the Indian Act or refugee are also exempt.

Those who are in violation of the ban can be fined up to $10,000 and may be required to sell the property they purchased.Those who knowingly assist a non-Canadian with their purchase can also be fined.

Royal LePage forecast adjusted downward: National aggregate home price set to end year modestly below 2021 following third quarter price declines in majority of Canadian markets

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released last month, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.3 % year-over-year to $774,900 in the third quarter of 2022.On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 4.9 %; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

“September did not bring the typical seasonal lift in the number of homes trading hands in this country, a clear indication that our housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs,” said Phil Soper,president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Home prices follow sales volume trends,which means we will see further softening in the final months of the year. Our revised outlook has national prices at just below where we ended 2021, erasing the gains made in the first quarter of 2022.”

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 2.7 % year-over-year to $744,500 in the third quarter of 2022.On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased 7.0 per cent; the second consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

“Despite softening home prices over the summer,Ottawa's fall real estate market is trending towards more stable conditions as new inventory becomes available.We continue to see strong buyer demand in the region – even if lower than last year's historical highs – and not enough supply to fully shift to a balanced market,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record, Royal LePage Team Realty. “Despite rising interest rates, many buyers are still keen to make a purchase this year.And,without a significant boost in inventory, it is unlikely we will see a full return to a balanced market.”

Ralph noted that interest rate hikes and inflation have eased competition. However, properties in the most desirable neighbourhoods, if priced properly, can still produce multiple-offer scenarios.

“Although demand remains strong in parts of the region, buyers today are able to be more selective with their purchases and have the opportunity to place conditions in their offers.Those who are in a position to buy feel the pressure to transact before lending rates rise any further.”

Ralph expects healthy market activity in Ottawa for the remainder of the year and anticipates a shift back to pre-pandemic seasonal trends in 2023, as low supply continues to be a challenge

Resale Market’s Adjustment and Correction Continues

Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 987 residential properties in October 2022 compared with 1,670 in October 2021, a decrease of 41%.

“After the volatility of the past two pandemic years, which was unsustainable, the market is correcting and adjusting,”says OREB's President. “The slowdown is compounded by Bank of Canada interest rate increases, which further exacerbates buyer hesitancy and weakens people’s purchasing power—especially first-time homebuyers.”

“Demand is still high, and with increasing inventory available, Buyers have more choices and time to shop for their new home. However, the ongoing speculation about where prices and interest rates are headed shakes consumer confidence and has made some prospective Buyers take a waitand-see approach.”

“Sellers may be understandably concerned about market fluctuations, which have been more drastic lately. As with any major investment, a longerterm perspective is important. The significant year-over-year gains of the last two years were not sustainable. If you have owned your property for any length of time, your equity has increased significantly and will buffer price corrections. If you buy and sell in the same market, it is all relative.”

The average sale price of a residentialclass property sold in October in the Ottawa area was $677,873, a decrease of 5% from a year ago. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $445,691 an increase of 9% from October 2021.